It probably won't be replaced by another keyboard.
One of the most popular alternative keyboard layouts is the
. The Dvorak keyboard was designed to increase typing rate, reduce repetitive strain injuries and reduce typing error. The design puts the most common letters used in written English on the home row where the fingers rest.
But the design was patented in 1936. Despite the carefully reasoned design, the studies that show its effectiveness and the competitions throughout the decades that support its advantage, the general public has ignored this invention.
Most students are trained in
on a QWERTY keyboard, and the inconvenience of learning a new layout is a common excuse for its low adoption.
There's a major weaknesses of the Dvorak layout: the layout is optimized for English. The Dvorak keyboard for Swedish, the Svorak, is slightly different, and one for 拼音 could be very different.
Another problem is that it's optimized for writing words. A programmer can spend just as much time on the keyboard, but the common keys such as = and ; are not in comfortable positions.
I'm a passable user of Dvorak. The main advantage is the ease of typing. My fingers mostly stay on the home row and there's noticeably less wrist movement. I don't necessarily type faster, but there's very little strain, which makes it comfortable when I write essays.
If keyboards were to be replaced, I'd imagine they would be obsoleted by very accurate voice recognition. The average typing speed in English is around 60 words per minute, while the average speaking speed is around 200 words per minute. Accurate dictation would be a huge improvement.
